Trump Derangement Syndrome is real as panic for the former president’s possible reelection in November sets in among Democrats.
In a confidential memo among top Democratic donors, liberals are wary that voter registration campaigns among young and minority voters might benefit Donald Trump.
Aaron Strauss, an influential data scientist, wrote in a memo last January, “Indeed, if we were to blindly register nonvoters and get them on the rolls, we would be distinctly aiding Trump’s quest.”
Nonpartisan groups linked with the Democrats have long organized various efforts that call on youth and people of color to go out and register; these are the demographics they classify as Democratic-leaning but have voted at lower rates.
However, there has been a remarkable shift from that trend in recent years. A study reveals that 1 in 5 individuals who are of voting age but are still unregistered tend to lean to the right and favor Republicans.
Strauss, in his memo, argued that registration campaign efforts that target young voters and minorities are often costly, “costing more than $1,200 per net vote.”
Moreover, the data scientist said that the only viable demographic was “only African American registration,” saying that black democratic voters only cost $575 per vote in 2020.
He also called on donors to donate to “specifically heavily pro-Biden populations,” like Black Americans, to help the 81-year-old president catch up from Trump’s widening lead.
Strauss, who also worked for Analyst Institute, another data-driven consulting effort that directs progressive spending, remarked that the memo was written in his capacity. He refused to comment.
At the core of Strauss’ unhinged memo is a shift in political preferences among unregistered voters.
In 2016, Gallup found that 51 percent of those who failed to register leaned Democrat, compared to those who favored Republicans.
However, Gallup surveys in 2023 and 2024 revealed a significant drop in Democrats’ share of the unregistered population. According to the polling, those who lean toward the Democrats dropped to 42 percent, while Republicans are gaining ground and rose to 40 percent.
Unfortunately for Strauss, his fellow Democratic Party supporters weren’t too hot on his memo.
Voto Latino CEO Maria Teresa Kumar said, “If you’d ask me what keeps me up at night, it’s not that young people of color are going to defect to the Republican camp. My worst-case scenario is that memos like this create disinvestment—and that makes our job very hard.”
