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October 14: Democrats 40% (D+2) Republicans 38%
October 28: Republicans 49% (R+16) Democrats 33%
This generic Congressional Ballot Poll showing trends among Independents has the Democrat party in panic mode.
An 18-point swing in two weeks toward the GOP this close to Election Day? That spells trouble for Democrats.
The CBS/YouGov web-based poll surveyed 1,000 Americans. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percent.
It’s been a long-held belief that the Republicans would take back the House after the 2022 mid-term elections, but now it’s looking increasingly probable that they’ll take the Senate as well.
Likely voters are voicing concerns about issues like the economy and inflation and tend to put more trust in Republicans to handle both.
Like James Carville’s sign at Bill Clinton’s Little Rock campaign headquarters said in 1992, “The economy, stupid.”
Democrats and their partners in the mainstream media want Americans to think that the majority of voters are concerned with abortion with only 5% of voters listing that as the most important problem facing the country.
Even with that small number, Democrats made abortion the focus of their messaging, while Republicans focus on the terrible economy and high inflation, stuff that matters to the majority of Americans.
Republicans are also enjoying a lead over Democrats among all voters. A recent Rasmussen poll puts Republicans at 49% to Democrats at 42%.
It’s not uncommon for the party in the White House to lose the House of Representatives. In the 22 midterm elections between 1934 and 2018, the current occupant of the White House lost an average of 28 House seats and four Senate seats.
Even with this historical trend in mind, strategists for the Democrat party have been increasing ad spending and campaign stops to try to stop the “red wave” coming in November.
The Cook Political Report estimates that Republicans will pick up 12 to 25 House seats. The GOP only needs to pick up five seats to garner a slight majority in the House.
According to Newsweek, political analyst and pollster, Craig Agranoff, told them that “Democrats need to figure out a better way to appeal to actual independents and figure out a way to focus more on the economy instead of social issues.”
When Americans are watching their retirement accounts tank, their grocery bills skyrocket, and the price of gas up to record levels, they are not all that concerned with social issues like abortion.
Newsweek added, “This has proven to be not the most effective strategy for Democrats, with the latest New York Times/Siena poll from mid-October showing voters’ top concerns are the economy (jobs) and inflation (cost of living).”
One of the Newsweek story comments reads, “Democrats can not comprehend that it is too late to find a better way to attract voters. Dems used up all of their ammunition in attacking Trump and the deplorables all year long. Now they will reap their reward for their short-sightedness.”
Not scientific, but probably pretty spot on!
